Haiti will struggle with subdued growth, significant political unrest and sustained budget deficits over our ---year forecast period. While there is concerted international effort to assist Haiti s reconstruction following the ---- earthquake, it will take decades for the country to raise living standards to those of regional peers. ...Haiti relies on discounted oil from Venezuela as its pri- mary fuel cost. With low global oil prices set to hit the Venezuelan economy hard, the government in Caracas is likely to scale back its `Petrocaribe discounted oil programme, to the detriment of long-term Haitian economic activity. We expect economic growth in Haiti to tick up marginally in ---- on the back of robust exports to the US. ...The indefinite postponement of Haiti s second-round presidential election will increase political risk in the country, as it approaches the end of President Michel Martelly s term. Continued public unrest will complicate negotiations for an interim government and increase the risk a constitutional crisis.
...---- ----e ----f ----f ----f ----f ----f ----f ----f ----f ----f ----f Government final consumption, HTGbn --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Government final consumption, of GDP -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- Government final consumption, real growth y-o-y --.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources/BMI --.- of total exports in ----, will grow robustly, due to trade agreements between the two countries. ...However, we note that political instability will remain a headwind, preventing significant grow in the tourism sector. We expect imports of goods and services to continue to drag on economic growth over the next -- years due to the coun- try s high reliance on imports of food and inputs for the textile industry. Imports will grow on average by -.- annually and will constitute an average of --.- of GDP over the ---year period as the country fails to domestically produce sufficient food and inputs to the textile industry. ...We expect imports of goods and services to continue to drag on economic growth over the next -- years due to the coun- try s high reliance on imports of food and inputs for the textile industry. Imports will grow on average by -.- annually and will constitute an average of --.- of GDP over the ---year period as the country fails to domestically produce sufficient food and inputs to the textile industry.
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