--,--- --,--- --,--- --,--- --,--- --,--- --,--- --,--- --,--- ---,--- ---,--- ---,--- Private final consumption, of GDP --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- Private final consumption, real growth y-o-y --.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, UN Statistics ports, but has been set aside due to low commodity prices and global oversupply of iron ore. ...Export growth will be further driven by steady growth in gold and iron ore production in the years ahead. In addition the completion of the Kaleta hydroelectric facility, in September ----, improved power supply, therefore providing tailwinds to Guinea s mining sector Imports of goods and services will also grow at a steady pace as improving domestic demand raises imports from abroad. Imports will grow by -.- on average per year over our ---year forecast period. ...Indeed, imports of electronic equipment and vehicles constituted almost --.- of all total imports.
...Private Consumption: Private consumption will rise as a share of GDP over the next -- years. Increased use of fertilisers and irrigation in the large agricultural sector will help to raise crop yields, feeding through to greater food security and profits for the large population of subsistence farmers in the country. ...However, in the years ahead, the government will pare back expenditures as part of fiscal consolidation measures to reduce the country s sizable fiscal deficit, which widened from -.- of GDP in ---- to -.- in ----. While stronger production in the bauxite sector will offer some tailwinds to revenue growth, we expect structurally low commodity prices to keep commodity revenues subdued, ensuring government spending remains relatively modest over a multiyear time horizon. Gross Fixed Capital Formation: Structurally lower com- modity prices compared to recent years, together with elevated political risk will keep gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) growth subdued over the next decade. ...Rio Tinto s announcement in July that their flagship Simandou iron ore project � a massive USD--bn project � will be shelved will preclude significant growth prospect for Guinea. The sheer size of the investment, in relation to nominal GDP of USD-.-bn, would have doubled the size of Guinea s economy over the next decade according to government re- - Business Monitor International Ltd www.bmiresearch.com
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