Warning After improving steadily since ----, plummeted in ---- due to bailout uncertainty. Has slightly increased since new deal agreed in August Private Consumption Retail Sales Warning Down -.- y-o-y in October, from a -.- y-o-y contraction the previous quarter New Car Sales Increasing Up --. y-o-y in Q---, possibly due to panic buying amidst Grexit fears Housing Housing Permits Warning Housing permits at below -- of ---- level in Q--- Mortgage Approvals Decreasing Limited demand and tighter mortgage lending standards in play through ---- Housing Affordability Increasing Prices down around -- since pre-crisis levels, and still falling Banking Sector Credit Demand Decreasing In negative growth territory since ----, down -.- y-o-y in September Asset Quality Warning We estimate NPLs are now over -- of total loans Deposit Growth Warning Deposit flight has slowed since third bailout agreed, but LTD ratio remains very high at around --- Prices CPI Increasing -- months of deflation ended in December ----, with a -.- y-o-y positive outturn Core CPI Negative Greece one of few EU countries where core inflation is below overall CPI, reflecting weak domestic demand Source: BMI. ...Warning After improving steadily since ----, plummeted in ---- due to bailout uncertainty. Has slightly increased since new deal agreed in August Private Consumption Retail Sales Warning Down -.- y-o-y in October, from a -.- y-o-y contraction the previous quarter New Car Sales Increasing Up --. y-o-y in Q---, possibly due to panic buying amidst Grexit fears Housing Housing Permits Warning Housing permits at below -- of ---- level in Q--- Mortgage Approvals Decreasing Limited demand and tighter mortgage lending standards in play through ---- Housing Affordability Increasing Prices down around -- since pre-crisis levels, and still falling Banking Sector Credit Demand Decreasing In negative growth territory since ----, down -.- y-o-y in September Asset Quality Warning We estimate NPLs are now over -- of total loans Deposit Growth Warning Deposit flight has slowed since third bailout agreed, but LTD ratio remains very high at around --- Prices CPI Increasing -- months of deflation ended in December ----, with a -.- y-o-y positive outturn Core CPI Negative Greece one of few EU countries where core inflation is below overall CPI, reflecting weak domestic demand Source: BMI. Last updated: January -- ---- sustainable growth drivers (see chart). ...lengthening maturities and interest deferrals , but only once burdensasapercentageofGDP(-.- ).
...Monetary & Financial Yield Curve Rising Short and long-end rising quickly in Q--- amidst fears of harsh terms of bailout Rate Expectations Declining Declining inflation expectations and dovish ECB comments imply more easing on the way. No hikes until at least ---- ASE Index Decreasing Heading down towards all-time lows after bank shares offered as part of sector recapi- talisation Fiscal Budget Balance Increasing Hovering at around - of GDP in September, but weak revenues implies widening on the cards. Primary surplus intact Government Debt Increasing Debt at around --- of GDP in Q---, but will likely jump to over --- of GDP by year-end due to new bailout Labour Market Private Sector Wages Declining Down -.- y-o-y in Q---. Will remain deeply negative amidst ongoing internal devalu- ation Labour Productivity Declining Declining in ----, after modest improvements in the two preceding years Vacancies Warning Job vacancy rate at -.- , well below -.- EU average Unemployment Rate Warning Declined to --.- in October, but will remain the highest in EU for years to come Participation Rate Increasing Proportion of labour force in employment has increased to around -- , but well below -- pre-crisis levels. Does not account for shrinking labour force, due to migration and ageing population ...Will remain deeply negative amidst ongoing internal devalu- ation Labour Productivity Declining Declining in ----, after modest improvements in the two preceding years Vacancies Warning Job vacancy rate at -.- , well below -.- EU average Unemployment Rate Warning Declined to --.- in October, but will remain the highest in EU for years to come Participation Rate Increasing Proportion of labour force in employment has increased to around -- , but well below -- pre-crisis levels. Does not account for shrinking labour force, due to migration and ageing population
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