Source: BMI appointment of Arnaud Montebourg to an enlarged economy and industry ministry does not inspire confidence that economic policymaking will be a smooth or coherent process under the new administration, given how polarised the economic policies of Montebourg and Valls are. In contrast to Valls s economic realism , Montebourg is a strong proponent of protectionist policies and has been involved in several high profile spats with prominent captains of industry in recent years. ...Nonetheless, Valls s tough stance on crime and immigration should appeal to more moderate centre-right elements of the electorate, and may help to neutralise some of the growing support for Front National ahead of the European Parliament elections in May. Furthermore, with both manufacturing and services purchasing managers indices arriving above expectations in expansionary territory in March, Valls s appointment may prove fortuitously timed, coinciding with the start of France s gradual economic recovery. Overall though, the proliferation of leftist ministers in Hol- lande s new cabinet will restrain Valls s ability to be a major reforming force. ...We therefore remain sceptical for the time begin that France will enter into a period of unprecedented economic and social reform. Long-term political outlook a tumultuous Decade could Lie ahead
...TaBle: PolITICal oVerVIeW - Long-term political outlook - a tumultuous Decade could Lie ahead < ALACRA META ABSTRACT>We expect several dynamics to come to the forefront of France s political scene in the coming decade. These include France s role in the world, economic reforms, the challenge of demographics and the potential resurgence of left-wing parties after years in the political wilderness. chapter -: economic outlook -- sWot analysis -- BMi economic risk ratings -- economic activity -- regional recovery Lifting France s outlook While French economic activity has improved slightly over Q---, the outlook is still relatively uninspiring, and headline real GDP growth will remain below pre-crisis averages. Nonetheless, improving external demand from Spain and Italy should help lift France into positive real GdP growth in ---- and ----. ...taBle: fiscal Policy -- Balance of payments -- struggling to attract The failure of President Francois Hollande to undertake meaningful reform of the French economy will ensure that the country continues to run a steady current account deficit for the foreseeable future. taBle: current account -- chapter -: ---Year Forecast -- the French economy to --
...-- Business Monitor International Ltd www sWot analysis strengths one of the major and most advanced european economies. Key French companies have a strong reputation for technological sophistication and high research and development (r&D) spend. ...
