Private Consumption: Private consumption will consistently make the largest contribution to overall real GDP growth in the DRC throughout our long-term forecast period. Real growth in this particular component of GDP will average -.- each year from ---- to ----. ...Gross Fixed Capital Formation: We expect fixed investment will see strong real growth over our long-term outlook, averaging -.- per annum and making a steady contribution to overall GDP growth. Expectations for steadily increasing commodity prices will attract investors to the resource-rich economy, while a growing distance between the current climate and the years of internal conflict that ravaged the DRC over the past -- years will boost confidence in the country s political system. Net Exports: Although the DRC s exports will continue to see strong real growth thanks to the country s vast commodity reserves, an underdeveloped manufacturing sector will leave the economy reliant on robust import growth to facilitate increas- ing production. ...Net Exports: Although the DRC s exports will continue to see strong real growth thanks to the country s vast commodity reserves, an underdeveloped manufacturing sector will leave the economy reliant on robust import growth to facilitate increas- ing production. We therefore expect net exports to make zero contribution to real GDP growth over our long-term outlook.
...The continued weakness in the copper sector will translate into a deteriorating external position in ----, as export growth fails to sustain historic levels. Despite the contraction in copper production � the DRC s biggest source of export revenue � growth in other minerals such as gold and cobalt will help fill some of the gap. ...While imports growth will likely decelerate alongside slower economic growth, we do not believe this will be sufficient to prevent a significant decrease in net demand for the local currency, the Congolese franc. The Banque Centrale du Congo (BCC) has long maintained a policy of supporting the franc s exchange rate by selling inter- national reserves, but we argued in November ---- that these were insufficient to outlast the new downward pressure on the kwanza following the continued decline of the copper sector (see Increasing Inflation Insufficient To Spur Rate Hike , No- vember -- ----). The BCC has already signalled it intends to sell USD--mn to support the franc at the end of February, but we do not believe this is sustainable, as foreign reserves stand at just USD-.--bn. ...In turn, this will weigh on production growth, particularly amongst the country s import-dependent producers whose input costs have risen in the wake of the weaker currency.
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