Usvit Well positioned central europe � Political map Source: BMI by weak coalitions, with the centre-right Civic Democratic Party (ODS) and centre-left Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD) forced to rely on the support of minor parties and independent can- didates to secure majorities in parliament. This has been reflected in a lack of clear policy direction and weak government stability, preventing serious action on addressing key challenges, notably healthcare and pension reform. ...Although such incidents have been roundly condemned by Czech mainstream politicians, a ---- Amnesty International report found that the Roma suffer state discrimination in housing, healthcare, employ- ment and education. Given that an estimated ---,-------,--- Roma live in the Czech Republic, and they appear increasingly willing to defend themselves against far-right aggression, we highlight the potential for small-scale clashes to expand into more serious outbreaks of violence. Immigration: In ----, --,--- immigrants came to live and work in the Czech Republic, the biggest yearly influx in the country s history. ...As a result, while immigrants currently make up around - of the population, a study by Charles University in Prague projects that number to reach - by ----. Although this in itself does not create the potential for a deterioration in social stability, we believe that the likelihood that the majority of new immigrants will come from non-traditional sources (ie Slovakia and Poland) poses further risks of social tension.
...f=BMI forecast, Source: Czech National Bank, BMI - Business Monitor International Ltd www contents executive summary - core Views Major Forecast changes Key risks to outlook chapter -: political outlook - sWot analysis - BMi political risk ratings - Domestic politics - stability in place Despite Waning support For ruling party We expect the ruling coalition in the Czech Republic comprising the centre-left CSSD and the populist ANO -- party to remain stable for the duration of their term in power until ----. However, declining support for the ruling CSSD party reflects a broad-based public disaffection with the political establishment as well as general suspicion towards the partys pro-EU stance. ...That said, the Czech Republic will remain among the most politically, socially and economically stable countries in Europe through the next decade. chapter -: economic outlook -- sWot analysis -- BMi economic risk ratings -- economic activity -- Momentum Behind export-Led recovery to Wane We have slightly revised upward our forecast for real GDP growth in the Czech Republic for ---- - to -.- from -.- previously due to a slightly more robust export-led recovery than we previously expected. Nevertheless, our forecast remains below Bloomberg consensus for ----, as we expect the momentum behind the rebound to lose some steam in H---. ...With inflation likely to return back within the Czech National Bank (CNB) s target and the economic recovery on track, we see no major incentives for the CNB to ease further this year. taBle: monetary Policy -- taBle: current account --
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