- Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook face an ongoing trial at the International Criminal Court. a challenging inheritance Despite its considerable economic successes, BMI believes that President Ouattara s administration faces three key challenges as it seeks to heal the wounds Cote d Ivoire has suffered during almost -- years of political and economic crisis: completing a massive disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) campaign; bringing Gbagbo loyalists back into the political system; and beginning a process of national reconciliation. ...- Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook face an ongoing trial at the International Criminal Court. a challenging inheritance Despite its considerable economic successes, BMI believes that President Ouattara s administration faces three key challenges as it seeks to heal the wounds Cote d Ivoire has suffered during almost -- years of political and economic crisis: completing a massive disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) campaign; bringing Gbagbo loyalists back into the political system; and beginning a process of national reconciliation. ...The Scope of State score is --.- and Policy Continuity is --.-. Long-term political scenarios BMI identifies three possible trajectories that Cote d Ivoire s political situation could take over the coming decade, with the first being our core forecast and the other two being less likely alternative scenarios.
...Infrequent attacks will continue in the Western regions, but the general security situation will improve and DDR programmes will be moderately successful. ...successful reintegration (---- probability) Alternately, it is possible that Cote d Ivoire s political situation could improve, with a reinvigorated reconciliation process leading to freely contested elections in ----. For this to come about, BMI believes we would have to see a serious effort to punish pro-Ouattara fighters for their actions during the ----- ---- crisis, a new willingness on the part of the FPI to rejoin the political process, and a significant acceleration of DDR efforts to improve stability. For long-term stability to be assured, we would have to see a substantial improvement in non-partisan political institutions and oversight mechanisms, a transformation made less likely by the April ---- decision to give President Ouattara the power to rule by decree in economic affairs. ...Even if the RDR government were to survive such a situation, foreign investors would abandon the country and Cote d Ivoire would likely face another lost decade. -- Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook
...While the establishment of a cohesive national government has set the stage for an impressive economic recovery in Cote d Ivoire, the country s political system remains brittle and ethnic tensions are easily inflamed. In our core scenario, BMI predicts that Alassane Ouattara s government will be only partially successful in addressing the country s political, security, and social challenges and that tensions will remain high over the coming years. ...
