...For now, the Communist Party of China (CPC) derives its legitimacy from delivering rapid rates of economic growth, which has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty over the past -- years. ...Although comparisons between dif- ferent organisation s calculated gini coefficients are inexact, due to differing methodologies, most observers agree that inequality is rising. In December ----, the gini coefficient was estimated at -.-- in ----, based on a survey of -,--- households by the Survey and Research Center for China Household Finance, a body set up by the Finance Research Institute of the People s Bank of China and Southwestern University of Finance and Economics. This is an exceptionally high figure, far above a government estimate of -.-- in ----, a World Bank estimate of -.-- in ----, and a China Academy of Social Sciences figure of -.-- in ----. ...Meanwhile, Christianity is reportedly growing rapidly in China. The government recognises an official state- sanctioned church, but underground churches and sects are on -- Business Monitor International Ltd www china Q- ---- policy continuity scores highly
...It is widely speculated that Bo/ Zhou s faction was seen as a serious threat to Xi within the party s top leadership, with allegations even emerging that Zhou was personally involved in an assassination attempt against Xi following Bo s ouster. ...Likewise, we note that Xi s actions suggest that he may be on his way to becoming a more powerful (and certainly more reform-minded) leader than outgoing president Hu Jintao, which could have critical ramifications for China s economic reform trajectory. While we maintain that the economic re- forms proposed in last year s Third Plenary session would not be sufficient to avert a near-term slowdown (and would likely be growth negative), their implementation would nevertheless be a positive for the economy s medium to long-term outlook. For this reason, we believe that the targeting of high level poli- ticians as well as SOE bosses is unlikely to have reached its conclusion. ...While we maintain that the economic re- forms proposed in last year s Third Plenary session would not be sufficient to avert a near-term slowdown (and would likely be growth negative), their implementation would nevertheless be a positive for the economy s medium to long-term outlook.
...As with any other one-party state, China s political system is inher- ently unstable and unable to respond to the wider changes taking place in society. Provincial officials often fail to enforce central government directives. ...
