- Business Monitor International Ltd www BMi ratings � Brief Methodology composite rating The composite rating is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economy ratings, allowing a ranking of all countries in BMI s emerging markets universe. political ratings The political ratings are an indicator of political stability, seen as a pre-requisite for a stable economy and business environment. ...Factors in the long-term rating include GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, real interest rates, exchange rates, the fiscal balance, the current account balance and external debt. A number of other structural factors are also thrown into the equation, including dependence on the primary sector, reliance on commodity imports, reliance on a single export sector and central bank independence. The factors included in the short-term rating are a subset of those in the long-term rating. ...The factors considered include: the state of the national infrastructure, the education system, cronyism/ corruption, red tape, the legal framework, property rights, market access and the corporate tax regime. - Business Monitor International Ltd www BMI Ratings armenia BMi risk ratings � armenia Latest rating previous rating trend region ave Global Mkts ave s-t Political --.- --.- - --.- --.- l-t Political --.- --.- - --.- --.- s-t economy --.- --.- + --.- --.- l-t economy --.- --.- - --.- --.-
...Armenia will remain vulnerable to the deteriorating outlook for the Russian economy in ---- and ---- as the former becomes more closely integrated with the latter. Russia is already Armenia s largest export market, and with Armenia set to join the Eurasian customs union in Q---, this reliance will become even more ingrained as opportunities for Western investment diminish. ...We believe the lack of economic and political reforms enacted by the government and the pivot away from the EU will hinder long-term economic activity, and as such we forecast real GDP growth to average -.- between ---- and ----. table: arMenia � lonG-terM MacroeconoMic forecasts -- chapter -.-: political outlook � azerbaijan -- Domestic -- renewed Human rights concerns threaten european ambitions Azerbaijan s progress towards deepening ties with the EU is set to falter following a new Council of Europe report criticising the government s lack of improvement in ending alleged human rights violations and ensuring basic freedoms. table: azerbaijan � Political overview -- Long-term political outlook -- everything Hinges on Attempts to win back the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave will remain the defining issue of Azerbaijani foreign and domestic policy through the medium term. ...The country s non-oil sector will continue to grow as the state pumps hydrocarbon revenues into social expenditure but will remain a secondary priority for the government and investors. table: azerbaijan � econoMic activity -- - Business Monitor International Ltd www CauCasus Q- ---- chapter -.-: ---Year Forecast � -- the azeri economy to ---- --
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