Bulgaria s GDP growth in the coming years will recover but stay modest by emerging market standards. We forecast the economy to grow by -.- in ---- and -.- in ----. Private consumption will continue to be the main economic growth driver, as Bulgaria remains unable to attract foreign investment, which has bolstered GDP growth in the past. We forecast Bulgaria s budget deficit to remain under -.- of GDP in the years ahead and although the overall debt level will rise, it will stay at a low level compared to regional peers. Bulgaria will generate a trade surplus in the coming years due to higher eurozone demand and a growing influx of international tourists. ...Bulgaria will generate a trade surplus in the coming years due to higher eurozone demand and a growing influx of international tourists. In ---- Bulgaria s price levels will start growing again, after expe- riencing the deepest deflationary period (after Greece and Cyprus) in the European Union.
...We have revised up our GDP growth forecasts, as we expect exports, manufacturing, and private consumption to do particularly well. We now estimate Bulgaria s economy expanded by -.- in ----, up from the previous estimate of -.- . ...We now estimate Bulgaria s economy expanded by -.- in ----, up from the previous estimate of -.- . We forecast GDP growth to amount to -.- in ---- and -.- in ----, up from -.- and -.- , respectively. Due to falling oil prices we have revised down our inflation forecasts for Bulgaria. For ---- we now estimate deflation to have amounted to -.- , from previously -.- . For ---- we forecast price growth to average to -.- , down by -.-pp, and for ---- we expect prices to grow by -.- , instead of originally -.- .
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