Source: BMI election saw the lowest voter turnout (--.- ) since the end of Communist Party rule in ----. As a result, a growing share of Bulgaria s population is feeling alienated from the political discourse. ...Peevski s current election campaign for the European Parliament elections in late May ---- is likely to reignite social tensions, and we maintain that the prospect of a snap election cannot be ruled out should public unrest intensify. While Bulgaria s social stability component in our Short-Term Political Risk Rating stands at --.-, beating the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) average score of --.- and emerging markets average of --.-, this masks a deeper structural problem facing the politi- cal risk profile (our overall Short-Term Political Risk Rating for Bulgaria is --.- out of ---). Even with reduced instances of violent clashes between demonstrators and security forces, high unemployment (-- at the end of ----), leaves risks to social stability elevated. ...Stalled integra- tion with the EU could see Russian influence in Bulgaria rise, if tensions between Europe and Russia rise over the coming years. - Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook policy Formation and enforcement a Major Weak point BMi short-term Political risk rating Breakdown
...We expect EU membership to remain key to Bulgaria s long-term po- litical outlook, helping underpin investor sentiment in the country and steady economic growth. However, we note that despite having already joined the bloc, Bulgaria has a number of challenges it must yet tackle to improve its business environment and help ensure a more stable economic and political situation over the next -- years. ...Moreover, we expect continued pressure from the EU to tackle both these issues. Despite this, we see only slow and limited improvement in corruption and organised crime over the coming decade given that the EU s ability to spur domestic lawmakers into action has been slightly diminished by already admitting Bulgaria to the bloc, and due to the difficulty involved in effectively tackling these areas of concern. Adverse demographic trends will weigh on Bulgaria s long- term economic growth and political stability profile. ...By our forecasts, real GDP growth will average -.- over ---------, down consider- ably from pre-crisis growth of -.- over ---------. Indeed, -- Business Monitor International Ltd www Bulgaria Q- ---- eu convergence to continue
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