Botswana s status as one of the most stable and politically progressive countries in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to endure for the foreseeable future. While we see the potential for political or social upheaval as minimal, over the next decade the government will come under mount- ing pressure to address the country s extreme inequality as well as facing the prospect of a reinvigorated opposition. ...While we see the potential for political or social upheaval as minimal, over the next decade the government will come under mount- ing pressure to address the country s extreme inequality as well as facing the prospect of a reinvigorated opposition. Blessed with vast mineral wealth but ruled by a party committed to economic prudence, business-friendly policies and human development, Botswana has managed to avoid the resource curse and its destabilising consequences, managing instead to establish a model for development that others in the region have tried to replicate. Over the next decade we see risks to broad political stability in the country remaining relatively low. ...This issue is particularly pertinent among the young, where the country s youth unemployment rate stands at over -- according to the AfDB (compared to the global average of -- ). Despite repeated efforts to stimulate growth in new sectors, the government s - Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook inequality the Weak spot
...Source: BMI job creation policies have seen only modest success. Populist policies such as the government s Ipelegeng programme have succeeded in creating short-term employment opportunities on essential development projects, but wages are low and the work is relatively unskilled. ...While the ruling BDP has seen its support steadily eroded over the last few decades, it continues to dominate the political landscape. We continue to believe that no direct threat to President Ian Khama and his ruling BDP will emerge in time for the general election in ----, and while the probability of a non-BDP gov- ernment being elected in ---- is certainly higher, we believe that the BDP will be difficult to dislodge. The lack of credible opposition continues to be a major obstacle to political change and there have been numerous failed attempts by opposition parties at forming coalitions capable of challenging the BDP. ...The lack of credible opposition continues to be a major obstacle to political change and there have been numerous failed attempts by opposition parties at forming coalitions capable of challenging the BDP. Meanwhile the ruling party s vastly superior funding and strong influence over national media add to these obstacles.
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