The existence of so many parliamentary parties with competing interests makes it both difficult to form coalition and to maintain cohesive government. As we alluded to above, that the last round of lengthy coalition negotiations went by without serious incident suggests that this time around the main players could feel emboldened to seek more concessions, which itself would risk prolonging government formation again. ...Although the N-VA is likely to come out top in the polls after the May vote, it will likely only be amenable to some form of centre-right coalition. Even without the promise of an independence referendum for the Flanders region, a coalition involving the N-VA would be steered in the direction of policies aimed at reducing the size and scope of the state, which would ultimately play into the party s long-term separatist agenda. As a result of this, many of the traditional Belgian parties would be unwilling to enter negotiation with the N-VA, which given its large relative size, would necessar- ily mean that the resulting coalition government would need to comprise many small parties as is the case now. ...This would lead to a further fragmentation of the Belgian political landscape and impede the stability of future coalition governments. - Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook
...The Belgian electorate will take to the polls in May to vote in regional, federal and European elections. Given the fragmented nature of do- mestic politics and the recent experience of prolonged coalition nego- tiations, it is quite possible that government formation will be a drawn out affair. ...The cabinet agreed to a succession of short-term budgets which prevented any major disruptions to state financing, with policymakers even managing to agree to provide fighter jets as part of the NATO response to the Libyan conflict. We believe that the relatively benign experience of governance by a caretaker administra- tion, coupled with the current stability in European financial markets, will significantly reduce the sense of urgency in the coalition negotiations following the May election. While we do not necessarily expect to see the marathon --- day negotiations of --------- to be repeated, we do not discount the possibility of another prolonged period of government formation, which - Business Monitor International Ltd www Belgium Q- ---- ...We believe that the relatively benign experience of governance by a caretaker administra- tion, coupled with the current stability in European financial markets, will significantly reduce the sense of urgency in the coalition negotiations following the May election. While we do not necessarily expect to see the marathon --- day negotiations of --------- to be repeated, we do not discount the possibility of another prolonged period of government formation, which - Business Monitor International Ltd www Belgium Q- ----
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