Belarus scored --.- out of ---, while regional peers Lithuania, Russia, and Poland scored --.-, --.-, and --.- respectively (a score of - represents perfect equality of wealth, while --- represents total inequality of wealth). That said, political stability over the long term remains precari- ous and this fact is reflected in our long-term political risk rating for Belarus, in which the country scores only --.- out of ---, placing it towards the bottom of the rating scale in emerging Europe. ...Pockets of nationalist or pro-reformist resistance which have formed have been routinely suppressed or dispersed by the government. While the Belarusian national identity remains relatively weak compared to that in other CIS countries and political apathy has stymied the rise of significant opposition, the government s success at deliver- ing strong economic growth over the past decade is certainly a factor as well. However, should the government prove incapable of achieving strong growth in the medium term public dissatisfaction with government performance could begin to grow, in particular among the youthful pro-democracy movement, who are more inclined to favour economic reform. ...Low-cost energy has played a large role in Belarus s strong economic growth over the past decade and any risk of higher prices presents significant risks for Belarus s economic future. If Russia chooses to close off the lucrative economic condi- tions awarded to Belarus in ---- and ----, then the Kremlin -- Business Monitor International Ltd www Belarus Q- ---- on the Doorstep of east-West political struggle
...Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko s position will remain strong in the years ahead as the violence of the Ukraine crisis will con- tinue to dampen support for the opposition, and entry to the Eurasian Economic Union in May ensures a continuation of Russian economic assistance. We see no major threats to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko s position of power in the years ahead (health permitting). ...Lukashenko, --, has held power in Belarus since ---- and we believe he is once again set to run in - and win � the presidential election, to be held in November ----. Belarus has no official opposition parties, and the groups that do oppose the Lukashenko government have been crippled in their efforts to promote an alternative by chronic mismanagement, the lack of a charismatic, unifying leader, and a large and effective secret police force. Lukashenko won the previous presidential election in ---- with --.- of the vote and although Western international observ- ers criticised the poll, we believe the recent Ukraine crisis will only bolster support for the incumbent. ...at the time of writing, the lowest level since October ----), which are critical for avoiding a sig- nificant devaluation of the currency in the face of our projections of a deterioration in the country s trade outlook.
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