Bangladesh will benefit from the power struggle between China and India for dominance of South Asia and the Indian Ocean, as the two giants will want to strengthen their political, economic and defence cooperation with Dhaka. This in turn bodes well for Bangladesh s long-term economic growth, and we are forecasting real GDP to grow at an annual average rate of -.- over the next -- years. ...Risks to our interest rate forecast remain weighted to the downside, however, as inflationary pressures should subside, allowing scope for monetary easing should the economy fail to recover strongly. taBle: monetary -- Balance of payments -- taka to remain stable as BB Bolsters reserves taBle: current account -- taBle: currency forecast -- - Business Monitor International Ltd www bangladesh Q- ---- chapter -: ---Year Forecast -- the Bangladeshi economy to ---- -- Long-term potential strong But restricted We believe that a real GDP growth rate above -.- for Bangladesh is sustainable in the long term given the increasing size of the workforce. However, to achieve growth in the --- range and higher, productivity will need to improve. Until this happens, GDP per capita � while on an upward trajectory � will remain relatively low. taBle: lonG-term macroeconomic forecasts -- chapter -: Business environment -- sWot analysis -- BMi Business environment risk ratings -- Business environment outlook -- institutions -- taBle: Bmi Business and oPeration risk ratinGs -- taBle: Bmi leGal framework ratinG -- infrastructure -- taBle: laBour force Quality -- taBle: asia � annual fdi inflows -- taBle: laBour force Quality -- Market orientation -- taBle: asia, annual fdi inflows -- operational risk -- taBle: toP eXPort destinations -- chapter -: Key sectors -- pharmaceuticals & Healthcare -- TABle: PHARmACeUTICAl SAleS, HISTORICAl DATA AnD -- telecommunications --
...Both Bangladesh and China will continue to seek to forge closer political, economic, and defence cooperation with one another. Indeed, several high-level visits between the two countries have already taken place over recent years, which have yielded stronger Sino-Bangladesh relations. Bangladesh has also been receiving strong political and economic support from China. On the political front, the latest pledge of support by Beijing came from its recognition of Bangladesh s January - parliamentary elections results, even though the in- ternational community deemed the outcome an unfair one, as the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-led coalition boycotted the polls. Meanwhile, on the economic front, China has been providing assistance and project loans over recent years in support of the economic and social developments in Bangladesh. ...As a sign that India is seeking to build stronger relations with its neighbours, the new Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, invited the heads of each South Asian state to his recent swearing-in ceremony. - Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook
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