Statistics series B forecast for population growth (which reflects current trends in birth rates, life expectancy and migration) ex- pects the population to rise from --mn in mid----- to --.-mn by ---- � an increase of -- . Even series C, the lower case scenario, envisages the population rising by -- from ---- levels to --.-mn. ...This is a step away from the controversial Pacific Solution , under which the then Labor government compensated the poor South Pacific island state of Nauru with AUD--mn (USD--mn) as part of its to house refugees at an offshore detention centre. -- Business Monitor International Ltd www AustrAliA Q- ---- strong across the Board Long Term Political Ratings & Components *Highest score is ---; Source: BMI That said, Prime Minister Tony Abbott s current policy has been equally disliked by the Indonesian and Papua New Guinea governments, who felt the current coalition government unilat- erally decided on these action plans which would burden them with these seekers. Dealing With Climate Change: The environment and climate change have become one of the most important national topics and it has been featured in federal elections since the ----s. ...With more than -- of its exports generated by Chinese demand, Australia cannot afford to antagonise China and we thus believe that preserving cordial Australia-China relations will continue to receive broad bipartisan support in the foreseeable future. -- Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook
...We believe Australia s fiscal deficit will continue to grow and hit a high of AUD--.-bn (-.- of GDP) in FY----/-- (July-June) as alternative financing plans for the government s infrastructure projects are likely to prove insufficient. Moreover, substantial political obstacles will prevent the current federal government from implementing any tax and expenditure reforms needed to improve the short and long-term outlook of the country s finances. ...In particular, we believe commodity exports and a renewed interest in skilled immigration will be key drivers in helping the economy return to its trendline growth of around -.- from ---- onwards, following a slowdown over ---------. taBle: lonG-terM MacroeconoMic forecasts -- chapter -: Business environment -- sWot analysis -- BMi Business environment risk ratings -- Business environment outlook -- institutions -- taBle: BMi Business and oPeration risk ratinGs -- taBle: BMi leGal fraMeWork ratinG -- infrastructure -- taBle: laBour force Quality -- taBle: asia � annual fdi infloWs -- Market orientation -- taBle: trade and inVestMent ratinGs -- taBle: toP exPort destinations, --------- -- operational risk -- chapter -: Key sectors -- -- taBle: defence exPenditure, --------- -- Freight -- taBle: road freiGht -- taBle: rail freiGht -- taBle: air freiGht -- taBle: MaritiMe freiGht -- other Key sectors -- taBle: oil and Gas sector key indicators -- taBle: infrastructure sector key indicators -- taBle: telecoMs sector key indicators -- taBle: food and drink sector key -- taBle: autos sector key indicators -- taBle: PharMa sector key indicators -- chapter -: BMi Global assumptions -- Global outlook -- Growth increasingly polarised taBle: GloBal -- taBle: deVeloPed states, real GdP GroWth, -- taBle: BMi Versus BlooMBerG consensus real GdP GroWth forecasts, -- taBle: eMerGinG Markets, real GdP GroWth, -- - Business Monitor International Ltd www AustrAliA Q- ---- core Views Economic activity in Australia remains weak, with the performance indices for manufacturing, services and construction all showing signs of further contraction. The pull-back in mining investment, as a result of a dimming outlook for iron ore and coal, continues to drive this dynamic. ...With economic weakness to become more evident in H---, we forecast the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its by -- basis points to bring the cash rate to -.-- by end-----. This should weaken the Australian dollar in aid of local manufacturers, as the unit has remained quite strong on the back of market expectations of possible interest rate hikes.
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