--.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Government final consumption, real growth y-o-y -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- f = BMI forecast; Source: BMI/INDEC consecutive years of declines in ---- and ---- will cause it to see a significant erosion of its share of nominal GDP � down from --.- in ---- to --.- in ----. This mostly stems from significant growth in private consumption. Indeed, this will come even as real gross fixed capital growth sees the most significant real growth of any component of Argentina s GDP. Net Exports: Net exports comprise a comparatively small por- tion of Argentina s GDP, especially given that currency controls and large export taxes have eroded import and export volumes over the term of President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner. Though this will slowly reverse, it will still play a comparatively small role in the country s economic composition, especially as imports are set to fall further in ---- and take years to reach previous highs. ...Net Exports: Net exports comprise a comparatively small por- tion of Argentina s GDP, especially given that currency controls and large export taxes have eroded import and export volumes over the term of President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner. Though this will slowly reverse, it will still play a comparatively small role in the country s economic composition, especially as imports are set to fall further in ---- and take years to reach previous highs.
...Private Consumption: Consumers share of GDP fell from --.- in ---- to --.- in ---- as inflation weighed on household spending. However, given our positive outlook for Argentine consumers, we believe that by ---- private consumption s share of nominal GDP will rise to --.- . Government Consumption: As private consumption has fallen, government spending has risen to take its place, growing from --.- of GDP in ---- to --.- in ----. We expect that the government s share of GDP will remain elevated in the coming years, peaking at --.- of GDP in ----, given the political difficulty of reducing spending amid an economic adjustment. Still, by ----, we forecast public consumption to return to --.- of GDP as the government gradually shrinks its fiscal deficits. ...Still, by ----, we forecast public consumption to return to --.- of GDP as the government gradually shrinks its fiscal deficits. Gross Fixed Capital Formation: Although we maintain a positive long-term view of investment into Argentina, two - Business Monitor International Ltd www.bmiresearch.com
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