Having been welcomed by observers at the time, there appears to have been little tangible progress on the implementation of the policy. This loss of momentum in the move towards politi- cal inclusion is also illustrated in the stuttering and uncertain progress towards long-awaited and potentially transformative municipal elections � potentially a key test of the government s commitment to political reform. ...Although currently small in scale and without any political affiliation, over a longer time frame such protests have the potential to grow in scale and pose significant threats to stability. Angola s ---- constitution stipulates that the freedom of as- sembly and peaceful, unarmed demonstration shall be guaranteed to all citizens, without the need for any authorisation and under the terms of the law, but reports by human rights organisations and civil society groups in the country indicate that the govern- ment uses plain clothes security personnel to forcibly disperse protestors, as well as launch pro-government demonstrations of its own. The ongoing deployment of heavy-handed tactics and other coercive measures will continue to exacerbate these tensions. scenarios For change Best-Case � Gradual Political & Democratic Reform: The best-case scenario for Angola over the next ten years is a gradual but inexorable move towards genuine multi-party democracy. This shift towards a more inclusive political system would be driven by a realisation within the ruling elite of the need to minimise the threat of social upheaval and recognition of the broad economic advantages that such a re-balancing would -- Business Monitor International Ltd www angola Q- ----
...In April, President dos Santos held a rare meeting with UNITA leader Isaias Samakuva � reportedly for the first time since ---- � in a bid to ease tensions and increase dialogue between the two sides. We are sceptical, however, as to whether such a move represents a meaningful step towards greater political reconciliation. ...That said, we caution that his route to the presidency is not without obstacles. We previously noted that given Vicente s perceived lack of political experience and the rumoured opposition among factions of the MPLA to his fast- tracking to the vice-presidency, significant efforts would need to be made to assuage these concerns. Despite rumours about his health, the president has conducted a number of high profile public engagements in recent months. ...In particular there has been a discernible warming in relations with the West � a relationship that has been tepid at best since the end of civil war in ----. Long-term political outlook path to political inclusion uncertain and slow
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