- Business Monitor International Ltd www BMi ratings � Brief Methodology composite rating The composite rating is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economy ratings, allowing a ranking of all countries in BMI s emerging markets universe. political ratings The political ratings are an indicator of political stability, seen as a pre-requisite for a stable economy and business environment. ...Factors in the long-term rating include GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, real interest rates, exchange rates, the fiscal balance, the current account balance and external debt. poLiticaL risK political risk Decreasing Although tensions in other Arab states have led to the ousting of long-time leaders as well as civil war, we do not expect social discontent to reach the same scale in Algeria. Algeria s ruling National Liberation Front and the National Rally for Democracy, a party loyal to the regime, won --.- of seats in parliamentary elections on May -- ----. ...We therefore see political stability persisting over the coming quarters.
...Domestic -- political instability continuing in ---- The security situation in Libya will remain fragile in ---- despite the recent signing of agreements between Tripoli and rebel groups in the east and the west of the country. These pacts are prone to reversals, and we cannot preclude a return to civil war over the coming quarters. ...At worst, we cannot rule out a division of the country or a return to conflict. chapter -.-: economic outlook - Libya -- sWot analysis -- LiBYa Q- ---- -- economic activity -- economic contraction accelerating in ---- Libya s GDP will contract by --.- in real terms in ----, a result of declining oil exports and falling government spending. Although we see the economy returning to growth of --.- in ----, risks to next year s forecast lie firmly to the downside owing to elevated political instability. ...As a result, the hydrocarbon sector will remain the key driver of growth. table: lonG-terM MacroeconoMic forecasts -- chapter -.-: Business environment - Libya -- sWot analysis -- chapter -:BMi Global assumptions -- Global outlook -- table: Global -- table: alGeria and libya Q- ---- --
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