McDonald?s global same-store sales were nearly flat in 2024, similar to the quick service restaurant space overall. Recent results showed a slight improvement in guest count, though a slight decrease in average check. We think this could indicate McDonald's pivotal low-income customers are increasingly focusing on discounts and the value menu. With a newly rolled-out value meal, we think this trend will persist through 2025. Based on solid growth in store count globally, we think the health of the franchises are adequate. We estimate S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA margins will be flat for the fiscal year ending 2024 relative to 2023 (pending the release of its 10-K), reflecting corporate expense management, offsetting some gross margin pressure. The stability of McDonald?s
