Full Analysis: Vattenfall AB Leading position in the Swedish power market, supported by large nuclear fleet and flexible low-cost hydropower generation assets. Close to 40% of EBITDA from relatively stable and low-risk regulated electricity distribution networks and district heating operations. Growing share of subsidized or long-term contracted renewables. Reduced but still significant exposure to depressed and commodity-driven wholesale power prices, weighing on profitability. Moderate likelihood of extraordinary government support in case of financial distress, adding one notch of uplift. Financial leverage expected to stabilize, with funds from operations (FFO) to debt above 20% and debt to EBITDA around 3.5x-4.0x. Relatively high level of asset retirement and pension obligations, representing about 55%-65% of our adjusted debt from 2017 to 2019. Positive
