We expect the U.K.'s economic recovery to continue, with GDP growth reaching 6.9% in 2021 and real output surpassing its pre-pandemic peak in early 2022. Risks to the recovery remain, but these now stem primarily from the impact of higher energy prices and supply-chain disruptions, rather than the impact of COVID-19. Narrower access to the EU market and continued spats with the EU over the trade arrangements in Northern Ireland also remain a risk. On the fiscal side, the focus has shifted toward post-pandemic consolidation, with several measures announced ahead of the upcoming Autumn Budget and Spending Review, in addition to those already unveiled in the 2021/2022 budget. We are affirming our unsolicited 'AA/A-1+' long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings
