Uganda

This report does not constitute a rating action. Overview Institutional and economic profile Flexibility and performance profile Uganda?s economic growth is improving as the construction of large oil projects progresses. The government?s ability to mitigate shocks is relatively low due to still-sizable fiscal and external imbalances. --S&P Global Ratings forecasts real GDP growth per capita will average 2.5% in fiscal years 2025-2028 (ending June 30), up from 1.3% the previous decade. --Persistent supplemental budgets in the run-up to the January 2026 elections and reduced external financing increase reliance on high-cost local currency debt. --Uganda?s IMF program expired in June 2024 without the disbursement of its final tranche, but negotiations for a new program continue. --Current account imbalances will remain wide

...Unplanned spending is being passed through multiple supplemental budgets, resulting in larger fiscal deficits. Parliament passed two supplementary budgets in January and March 2025, raising expenditure by about Uganda shilling (UGX) 5 trillion ($1.4 billion; 2.2% of GDP) relative to the original budget. Consequently, we forecast the fiscal deficit will widen to 7.0% of...

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