...Inc., published April 25, 2023, on RatingsDirect. ISSUE RATINGS--RECOVERY ANALYSIS Key analytical factors - Our simulated default scenario analysis on UKG contemplates a default in 2025 as the company faces strong price competition from the crowded human capital management (HCM) space, leading to severe attrition among its existing client base and an inability to cover its debt and interest expense. - Our updated recovery analysis now assumes a capital structure comprising $7.03 billion of first-lien term loans due in 2026, a $1.45 billion second-lien term loan due in 2027, and a $545 million revolving credit facility due in 2026. - In our analysis, we value the company as a going concern to maximize the value to its creditors. - We applied a 7x EBITDA multiple to an assumed distressed emergence EBITDA of $655 million to derive an estimated gross recovery value of $4.5 billion. - The valuation multiple is consistent with those we use for similar software companies. Simulated default assumptions...