With 37% of retail REITs on positive outlook, S&P Global Ratings expects the positive ratings momentum to continue in 2025. Still, upward ratings momentum could be tempered by expectations for slower economic growth and weaker consumer spending given potential effects from recently announced tariffs. Our economist lowered the U.S. GDP growth forecast to 1.9% in 2025 and raised the risk of recession to 30%-35%. While retailer bankruptcies increased in recent quarters, effects on high-quality, grocery-anchored portfolios were limited so far, supporting stable credit metrics. We expect retail REITs will continue to fund external growth in a leverage-neutral manner while maintaining S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt to EBITDA in the current rating range.
