This report does not constitute a rating action. NEW YORK (S&P Global Ratings) Oct. 26, 2026--In its inaugural credit estimate default forecast , S&P Global Ratings expects the U.S. default rate to reach 4.75% by September 2027. This would be a 145 basis-point increase from the current rate, given persistent inflation, rising rates, and the expectation for slower growth and tighter Fed policy ahead. The partially offsetting factors are economic resilience, supportive financial markets, and gradually improving financial metrics of most of our credit-estimate issuers. However, risks are rising, with energy price relief becoming less likely in the near term, and a high proportion of credit estimates in the high-tech/software sector that retains much uncertainty heading into 2027, given the
