...November 5, 2024 We expect 2024 revenue to remain flat, with lower fuel surcharges contributing a headwind of 150 basis points (bps). The intermodal segment rose 9% between the second and third quarters of 2024, which we partly attribute to earlier disruptions at East Coast ports leading to a surge in West Coast imports and creating a preloaded peak season. We estimate Union Pacific Corp.'s (UP) intermodal segment revenue growth will be flat with revenue per carload declining around 7% as trucking remains competitive despite carloads increasing about 7%. We expect coal revenue to decline 22% due to lower pricing and carloads as coal stockpiles are elevated and natural gas prices are low. UP's industrial segment is performing well, with revenue expected to increase about 2%-3%, driven by a 4% growth in pricing despite flat carload volume. Lastly, we expect the bulk segment (excluding coal/renewables) to grow 2%-3%, primarily from positive momentum in its food, refrigerated, and fertilizer...
