...April 25, 2025 This report does not constitute a rating action. Lower hydrocarbon prices: PTTEP's earnings will moderate in 2025-2027 due to lower oil prices. We lowered our assumptions for Brent oil price to US$65 a barrel (bbl) for 2025 and US$70 bbl for 2026, given weak fundamentals and market oversupply. Earnings drivers: Gas continues to account for the bulk of PTTEP's sales volumes, at over 70% in 2024. PTTEP is less price sensitive than peers because about 90% of its gas benefits from more stable formula-based pricing versus volatile spot prices. Fixed-price gas represents about 9% of the company's total gas mix. Higher spending: A short reserve life of less than seven years will require PTTEP to continually replenish its reserves. The company has: (1) acquired stakes in Algeria and the Ghasha concession; and (2) increased its stake in its Sinphuhorm project to 90%. Annual investments will also step up to US$4 billion-US$4.7 billion in 2025-2026 as major projects make progress. Strong...
