Tear Sheet: MTN Group Ltd.

Our base case factors in the full impact of the Nigerian naira devaluation due to foreign exchange (forex) liberalization, rebasing of lease costs, and inclusion of value-added tax on lease costs in Nigeria, as well as inflationary pressures in other markets. This is offset by targeted group cost savings of South African rand (ZAR) 1.5 billion. Including the aforementioned items, we expect MTN's S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA margin to decline to about 40% in 2023 from 44.4% in 2022. For 2024 and 2025, we expect S&P Global Ratings-adjusted margins to sequentially improve to 42%-44%, translating to EBITDA of ZAR94.2 billion-ZAR104.2 billion. We believe that MTN can sustain its EBITDA turnaround thanks to the combination of continuing strong growth in data

...December 18, 2023 S&P Global Ratings expects MTN Group Ltd. (MTN)'s operational performance to remain resilient, despite continuing near-term headwinds. Our base case factors in the full impact of the Nigerian naira devaluation due to foreign exchange (forex) liberalization, rebasing of lease costs, and inclusion of value-added tax on lease costs in Nigeria, as well as inflationary pressures in other markets. This is offset by targeted group cost savings of South African rand (ZAR) 1.5 billion. Including the aforementioned items, we expect MTN's S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA margin to decline to about 40% in 2023 from 44.4% in 2022. For 2024 and 2025, we expect S&P Global Ratings-adjusted margins to sequentially improve to 42%-44%, translating to EBITDA of ZAR94.2 billion-ZAR104.2 billion. We believe that MTN can sustain its EBITDA turnaround thanks to the combination of continuing strong growth in data and fintech revenue, capital expenditure (capex) on its network, and management's...

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