Tear Sheet: International Paper Co.

International Paper Co.?s (IP) daily box shipments were flat to slightly higher sequentially in the U.S. compared with the second quarter of 2023. This indicates customers have mostly finished reducing their excess inventory of boxes. Volumes should now mirror underlying demand, which we forecast will improve in line with real consumer spending growth of 1%-2% in 2024 and 2025. Although IP?s announced Orange, Texas containerboard mill closure brings industry capacity closer to demand, supply still likely exceeds our expectations for volumes over this period. Thus, we think containerboard prices will fall further until demand improves meaningfully, potentially in mid- to late-2024. Our base-case scenario anticipates lower containerboard prices remain a headwind in 2024 before increasing in 2025. We forecast this

...November 9, 2023 The third quarter of 2023 likely marks the beginning of a slow recovery in box demand and unit volume. International Paper Co.'s (IP) daily box shipments were flat to slightly higher sequentially in the U.S. compared with the second quarter of 2023. This indicates customers have mostly finished reducing their excess inventory of boxes. Volumes should now mirror underlying demand, which we forecast will improve in line with real consumer spending growth of 1%-2% in 2024 and 2025. We anticipate lower containerboard prices in 2024 will prevent higher box demand from improving IP's S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA until 2025. Although IP's announced Orange, Texas containerboard mill closure brings industry capacity closer to demand, supply still likely exceeds our expectations for volumes over this period. Thus, we think containerboard prices will fall further until demand improves meaningfully, potentially in mid- to late-2024. Our base-case scenario anticipates lower containerboard...

Full Report