DINO reported solid S&P Global ratings-adjusted EBITDA of about $3.4 billion in fiscal 2023 (ended Dec 2023), which was a large decline from an extremely strong fiscal 2022. However, it still benefited from elevated crack spreads in its refining business. Now that crack spreads have declined, we anticipate fiscal 2024 will better represent a midcycle environment with net refining margins of about $7-$8 per barrel. We anticipate an overall utilization rate of about 85%-95%, factoring in planned turnarounds. Given these assumptions, we forecast S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA of $2.2 billion-$2.4 billion, leading to leverage of about 1.0x for fiscal 2024. We currently forecast similar EBITDA and leverage for fiscals 2025 and 2026. We forecast DINO could generate FOCF of $900
