...July 10, 2023 Following a record 2022, lower price environment and higher cash costs will lead to weaker credit metrics in 2023-2024. We expect S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA to normalize around $20 billion-$23 billion in 2023 and around $15 billion-$18 billion in 2024, compared with $35.2 billion in 2022. In practice, EBITDA will continue to be very volatile because of variables such as supply constraints, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical tensions. China's re-opening and energy security drive demand, but on the other hand we could see headwinds from a potential recession heading into 2024. Our rating on Glencore factors in the company maintaining adjusted funds from operations (FFO) to debt of 50% under mid-cycle conditions, and of about 85% in 2023. Under our calculations, taking into account the company's reported net debt of $10 billion, Glencore's reported EBITDA could drop to about $11 billion without any pressure on the rating or the company having to use some of its...
