...July 8, 2026 This report does not constitute a rating action. Refuel's operational efficiencies are improving, supporting adjusted EBITDA growth despite pressure on fuel volumes. The company's S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 70 basis points year-over-year to 7.4% in first-quarter 2026, driven by elevated fuel margins, which grew about 25.7%. We expect EBITDA margins to remain resilient, though we forecast a slight moderation to 7.3% for full-year 2026. In our view, Refuel and other fuel station operators are benefitting from higher cents per gallon (CPG) stemming from volatility caused by the Iran war. While we anticipate these elevated fuel margins will pull back as geopolitical tensions stabilize, the timing of this normalization remains uncertain. Fuel demand has softened this year, with same-store fuel volumes declining approximately 4.4% in the first quarter of 2026 due to elevated pump prices and tightening consumer budgets. Management is working to strengthen its...
