...February 25, 2025 Despite record high coffee prices and softer consumer spending, Evoca gained market share in 2024. We estimate a sales decrease of 4%-5% for end-2024 on softer consumer spending and customers postponing the replacement of machines, partially offset by coffee machine price increases. For end-customers, the most significant item of total cost ownership (TCO) of a coffee machine continues to be the beans (estimated around 30%-50% of TCO), which can influence decisions about acquiring or upgrading machines. Despite declining sales, Evoca gained market share in 2024. We estimate it will achieve S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA of 90 million-95 million mainly on ongoing full potential efficiencies under its EVO program, particularly related to procurement and topline growth activities as well as pricing strategy. Evoca's sales growth and profitability should improve in 2025 driven by a better product mix, ongoing price increases, and full potential efficiencies. Although coffee...
