...December 2, 2024 Lufthansa is on track to meet its 2024 adjusted EBIT guidance of 1.4 billion-1.8 billion, which lags the 2.7 billion reported in 2023. Earnings in the first nine months suffered from: labor strikes (negative EBIT impact of about 450 million in the first half), flight irregularities (negative EBIT impact of about 220 million in the third quarter), increased personnel cost due to higher headcount and wages post the collective labor agreements (CLAs), and rising fees and charges across the aviation network. Our revised 2024 base-case corresponds to the mid-range of Lufthansa's EBIT guidance and translates to S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA of 3.9 billion-4.0 billion (4.6 billion in 2023). We forecast mid-single-digit revenue growth for the passenger airlines business, incorporating Lufthansa's lowered capacity guidance to 91% of the pre-pandemic base (from 94% initially), a robust load factor of around 84% (82.9% in 2023), and a 3%-4% drop in revenue per available seat...
