Tear Sheet: Controladora Mabe S.A. de C.V.

Despite continued challenging macroeconomic conditions and likely foreign exchange rate volatility, we foresee Mabe posting revenue growth of 3%-4% in 2025-2026. We expect steady inventory ordering from retailers, although they will remain cautious, creating incentives for Mabe to produce close to sell-out levels. Moreover, we expect supportive commodity costs and productivity initiatives, but Mabe to focus on regaining market share in key markets. In our view, this will lead to a slight 40-basis-point (bps) EBITDA margin contraction to 10.2% in 2025, before gradually rebounding toward 11.0% through 2027. At year-end 2024, Mabe maintained strong credit metrics, including S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt to EBITDA and funds from operations (FFO) to debt near 0.9x and 69%, respectively, as well as a cash

...February 27, 2025 (Editor's note: S&P Global Ratings believes there is a high degree of unpredictability around policy implementation by the U.S. administration and possible responses--specifically with regard to tariffs--and the potential effect on economies, supply chains, and credit conditions around the world. As a result, our baseline forecasts carry a significant amount of uncertainty. As situations evolve, we will gauge the macro and credit materiality of potential and actual policy shifts and reassess our guidance accordingly [see our research here: spglobal.com/ratings]) S&P Global Ratings expects Controladora Mabe S.A. de C.V (Mabe) to deliver steady operating results over the next 12-24 months. Despite continued challenging macroeconomic conditions and likely foreign exchange rate volatility, we foresee Mabe posting revenue growth of 3%-4% in 2025-2026. We expect steady inventory ordering from retailers, although they will remain cautious, creating incentives for Mabe to produce...

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