Tear Sheet: CAP S.A.

This report does not constitute a rating action. We revised our 2026 revenue and margins forecast for CAP S.A. amid sustained high iron ore prices. Year-to-date prices averaged $105/ton. Our forecast assumes $100/ton for the remainder of the year, up from $90/ton previously. We expect 15.1 million-15.6 million metric tons of iron ore production in 2026, in line with CAP's guidance, and pellet feed to continue to account for most of production due to their premium over fines ($11/ton-$12/ton). S&P Global Ratings expects these factors to offset anticipated increases in energy and freight costs stemming from the volatility in brent prices and indirect impacts from geopolitical conflicts. These will result in nominal EBITDA of $517 million in 2026, an improvement

...May 5, 2026 This report does not constitute a rating action. We revised our 2026 revenue and margins forecast for CAP S.A. amid sustained high iron ore prices. Year-to-date prices averaged $105/ton. Our forecast assumes $100/ton for the remainder of the year, up from $90/ton previously. We expect 15.1 million-15.6 million metric tons of iron ore production in 2026, in line with CAP's guidance, and pellet feed to continue to account for most of production due to their premium over fines ($11/ton-$12/ton). S&P Global Ratings expects these factors to offset anticipated increases in energy and freight costs stemming from the volatility in brent prices and indirect impacts from geopolitical conflicts. These will result in nominal EBITDA of $517 million in 2026, an improvement from our prior forecast of $470 million and up from $460.2 million in 2025. Sustainability of EBITDA and cash flow is critical to our rating on CAP. We expect higher EBITDA will reduce leverage to 3.1x by year-end 2026,...

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