Tear Sheet: Aydem Renewables

The company sells 100% of generated electricity sold domestically and is fully exposed to the local regulatory system along with local financial, economic, and banking risks. We think 2023 results will be affected by low hydro generation due to poor hydrology in the first three months of the year. Still, we think EBITDA for 2023 might be about $150 million, improving to about $200 million next year on better hydro output and rising contribution from hybrid capacities and wind farms expansion. This expansion will help the company mitigate volatility in the hydro generation observed in 2021-2023. We think another 500 MW ambitious solar and wind generation plus battery storage project eyed for 2025 is too large for the company to

...September 11, 2023 The sovereign rating on Turkiye constrains our ratings on Aydem Renewables. The company sells 100% of generated electricity sold domestically and is fully exposed to the local regulatory system along with local financial, economic, and banking risks. We think credit metrics in 2023-2024 will remain adequate for the ratings, with adjusted funds from generation (FFO) to debt in 10%-20% range. We think 2023 results will be affected by low hydro generation due to poor hydrology in the first three months of the year. Still, we think EBITDA for 2023 might be about $150 million, improving to about $200 million next year on better hydro output and rising contribution from hybrid capacities and wind farms expansion. Investment plans of $245 million for 2023-2025 include adding 310 megawatts (MW) in hybrid solar and wind capacities. This expansion will help the company mitigate volatility in the hydro generation observed in 2021-2023. We think another 500 MW ambitious solar and...

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