TRATON SE

The stable outlook on TRATON mirrors that on VW, as long as VW owns more than 75% of TRATON. Although it is unlikely, given VW's solid headroom under the 'BBB+' rating, we could lower our rating on TRATON following a similar action on VW. We could take a positive rating action on TRATON following a positive rating action on VW. Real GDP growth in the eurozone of 5.1% in 2021 and 4.5% in 2022, after a contraction of 6.5% in 2020. Brazil's real GDP will grow 5.1% in 2021, followed by 1.8% in 2022, after a 4.4% contraction in 2020. Real GDP in the U.S. will grow 5.7% in 2021, followed by 4.1% in 2022, after a 3.4% contraction in

...TRATON's acquisition of Navistar has materially increased the group's industrial business debt. On July 1, 2021, German truck manufacturer TRATON SE completed its debt financed acquisition of Navistar International Corporation. Taking the acquisition into account, we now forecast adjusted debt for TRATON's industrial business to range between 9.5 billion-10.5 billion by year-end 2021, up significantly from about 3 billion at year-end 2020. We note that, through this acquisition, the group gained a direct foothold to the U.S. market, one of the most profitable and attractive profit pools of the global truck industry. Navistar currently holds the No. 4 position in terms of market share in the class 8 U.S. truck market. This mirrors its market share of about 13%, down from 26% in 2009. The material decline of Navistar's market share is the result of the troubled MaxxForce engine, which materially affected the units sold. We understand that management will actively work to exploit the potential...

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