Swiss Re Ltd.

The negative outlook reflects the risk that Swiss Re's underwriting performance will not improve over the next 24 months. We believe this would place further pressure on the group's franchise and capitalization. We could lower the rating by one notch over the 24 months if we thought: Earnings were unlikely to reach our projections for net income and the combined ratio; or We expected the group's capital would drop below the 'AA' confidence level for a prolonged period. We could revise the outlook to stable in the next 24 months if the group demonstrated that it could perform in line with our earnings and capital expectations, as well as with 'AA-' rated peers, and displayed no weaknesses in its competitive

...Swiss Re Ltd. will remain as one of the dominant players in the global reinsurance sector. S&P Global Ratings expects Swiss Re to maintain its position among the top global reinsurers, benefiting from diversified business operations with about 52% of net premiums earned (NPE) from P/C reinsurance, 35% from life and health reinsurance, and 13% from Corporate Solutions (CorSo; primarily P/C business). In terms of geography, the group is present in significant markets. It generates about 49% of its NPE and fee income in the Americas; 32% in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; and 19% in Asia-Pacific. We continue to expect a recovery of group earnings over 2023, considering the challenges in 2022. We expect that Swiss Re will record an underwriting loss in 2022 in its P/C reinsurance book. Above-average natural catastrophe losses--notably Hurricane Ian ($1.3 billion for the group)--coupled with prior-year inflation-related adverse reserve developments increased Swiss Re's P/C combined ratio...

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