Summary: United Kingdom

The U.K.'s large, diversified, and services-oriented economy continues to face uncertainty regarding its future relationship with the EU. The U.K. authorities' search for consensus on Brexit continues and is crowding out nearly all other policy considerations. In our base-case scenario, in which the U.K. does not leave the EU without a deal, we project economic growth will average 1.3% over 2020-2022. The degree of access to the EU that the U.K.'s large services sector achieves will be an important determinant of the economy's outlook post-Brexit. Sterling's reserve currency status enables access to a wide array of financing options at favorable rates and maturities. Given that all major political parties have committed to higher funding for key public services, we project

...Institutional and economic profile Flexibility and performance profile The U.K.'s large, diversified, and services-oriented economy continues to face uncertainty regarding its future relationship with the EU. + The U.K. authorities' search for consensus on Brexit continues and is crowding out nearly all other policy considerations. + In our base-case scenario, in which the U.K. does not leave the EU without a deal, we project economic growth will average 1.3% over 2020-2022. + The degree of access to the EU that the U.K.'s large services sector achieves will be an important determinant of the economy's outlook post-Brexit. Sterling's reserve currency status enables access to a wide array of financing options at favorable rates and maturities. + Given that all major political parties have committed to higher funding for key public services, we project government debt-to-GDP will rise through 2022. + The U.K.'s large current account deficit requires substantial financing from abroad. + We...

Summary