The ratings on Qatar are supported primarily by strong fiscal and external balance sheets, healthy economic prospects driven largely by the gas industry, and high per capita income. The ratings remain constrained by the geopolitical risks facing sovereigns in the Gulf region, and the country's capacity and institutional constraints which are higher than for other 'AA' rated sovereigns. We expect Qatar's fiscal and external performances to remain strong, although 2009 should see lower surpluses than in previous years owing to declining energy prices. We project a healthy general government surplus of about 2.3% of GDP in fiscal year 2009-2010 (ending March 31, 2010), against an expected surplus of 17% of GDP in 2008-2009. With very low debt and large estimated
