The COVID-19 pandemic will have a more substantial impact on Barbados' economic growth while recovery will be slower than expected. We expect Barbados' GDP will decline significantly in 2020 due to the impact of the global pandemic. We anticipate that a recovery in tourism will be more prolonged than we expected in April 2020, as key source markets continue to face second waves of COVID-19 cases. However, we believe that the Barbados Economic Recovery Transformation (BERT) program had supported Barbados' fiscal and external position entering into the pandemic, which will facilitate its ability to weather the economic impact. Debt exchanges completed in 2018 and 2019, and financing from multilateral institutions will help limit Barbados' near-term payment risk. The impact of