S&P Global Ratings believes BP is fully able to deliver on its impressive 5% per annum production guidance and could sustain it even beyond 2020, in view of its portfolio of new projects. Importantly, cash breakeven levels should continue declining from an estimated $45 at the end of 2018, supporting solid upstream cash flows even if oil prices gradually decline in 2019-2020. BP is set to generate meaningful free operating cash flow even under an assumed oil price decline in 2019-2020. This is because we don't believe BP will increase capital expenditure (capex) beyond its guidance of $15 billion-$17 billion. However, if market conditions remain favorable, we assume not all extra cash flows will go toward debt reduction, but that
