Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ)

The stable outlook reflects our view that SEB's earnings will remain robust and support its credit profile. Despite the challenging operating climate, asset quality is expected to remain intact over 2024-2025. We anticipate SEB will remain compliant with the requirements set by financial regulators, having worked to improve its anti-money laundering (AML) framework. Our RAC ratio is expected to remain sustainably above 10% over our two-year outlook horizon, supported by SEB's strong capacity for profit generation. We could lower the ratings if macroeconomic pressures and geopolitical uncertainties challenge asset quality and earnings materially beyond our expectations. Also, while AML risks have subsided, if investigations indicate possible misconduct signaling that governance and control weaknesses persist, this could weigh on the rating.

...We expect Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB)'s diversified revenue mix will support earnings in 2024-2025. In addition to holding a top position in the Swedish and Baltic retail markets, SEB's leading position among large corporates in the Nordics affords the bank a steady revenue stream. We think that SEB's diversified offerings will serve it well in delivering approximately Swedish krona (SEK) 32 billion-SEK34 billion (about 3 billion) in net income over the next two years (compared with net income of SEK38 billion in 2023)....

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