Sigma HoldCo BV

We also acknowledge that, in the first half of 2019, the group achieved roughly €26 million of an anticipated €200 million in value-creation savings, mainly through contract negotiations and supplier relocations, packaging optimization, and other procurement initiatives. Potentially, the full realization of these cost savings will represent a significant boost to the adjusted EBITDA margin, which we forecast at 24%-25% over 2019-2020. The stable outlook on Upfield reflects our expectation that the group can deliver its growth agenda through specific actions to revitalize revenues in developed markets. These include brand relaunches, product innovation, and growth opportunities in emerging markets. In our base case, we assume that Upfield will post positive growth from 2020 while maintaining an adjusted EBITDA margin of

...Sigma HoldCo BV (Upfield) ranks among the top three in all 95 markets where it operates. Upfield's core product category, margarine, accounts for about 80% of sales as of June 30 2019, according to our estimates. Consumption of margarine has been declining in developed markets in recent years due to taste and naturalness issues. Since its acquisition by investment firm KKR & Co. Inc., Upfield has repositioned itself as a plant-based food company, taking advantage of consumers' shift toward plant-based eating for health and environmental sustainability reasons. According to Nielsen, U.S. retail sales (Upfield's largest market, accounting for roughly 17% of sales) of plant-based foods increased by 11% in the 12 months to April 30, 2019, versus the same period to April 30, 2018, to a total market value of $4.5 billion. Conversely, in the same period, the total U.S. retail food market grew by just 2%. We still see risks from Upfield's separation from Unilever, although carve out activities...

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