NEW YORK (S&P Global Ratings) May 1, 2025--A seismic shift in U.S. trade policy has added to the uncertainty that has roiled markets and raised the specter of a global economic slowdown. To help understand the potential effects, we have updated our macro view, including GDP growth and inflation forecasts and chances of a recession. "The jump in U.S. import tariffs, trading partner retaliation, ongoing concessions, and subsequent market turbulence constitute a shock to the system centered on confidence and market prices. The real economy is sure to follow, but by how much?," said S&P Global Ratings Global Chief Economist Paul Gruenwald. We have again lowered our GDP growth forecasts for most countries and raised our inflation forecast for the
