This report does not constitute a rating action. Consumer spending resilience will support stable ratings for the U.S. retail sector throughout the 2026 holiday season. Retailers expect modest increases in store traffic and sales volumes, according to S&P Global Ratings’ survey of retailers that we rate; 82% expect holiday retail sales to increase in 2026 compared with 2025, and 18% expect no change. While 62% of issuers that we surveyed report more cautious consumer sentiment compared to last year, the forecast for 4% sales growth--up from 3% in 2025--suggests consumers will continue to spend despite affordability pressures. Our second annual holiday sales survey of rated issuers in subsectors with meaningful holiday sales exposure includes department stores, specialty retail, mass and
