Rwanda

This report does not constitute a rating action. Overview Institutional and economic profile Flexibility and performance profile Growth to remain robust as policy reforms continue, supported under an International Monetary Fund (IMF) program. Fiscal and external vulnerabilities will remain high as elevated indebtedness and external imbalances reduce only gradually. --Real GDP per capita growth will average around 4.5% per year in 2024-2027, well above the rate for similarly rated peers. --The government's fiscal deficit remains large and debt servicing costs are likely to remain high due to tight global and domestic monetary policy and large financing needs. -- Policies to boost private sector participation and tackle climate change are ongoing, guided by an IMF program. --Rwanda remains susceptible to exchange

...Economic growth will remain strong until 2027, bolstered by consumption and government spending to rebuild after the floods in 2023. We expect lower inflation compared to recent years will support consumers' purchasing power and spur domestic demand, while government policies centered on improving infrastructure and addressing climate change will keep public investment high. These policies are supported by a 36-month IMF Policy Coordination Instrument, a $319 million IMF Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF)--both approved by the IMF board in December 2022--as well as a 14-month stand-by credit facility approved by the IMF in December 2023. Rwanda's political succession process has not been tested, and this makes future policymaking and implementation uncertain. At the same time, tensions in the eastern provinces of the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) remain a concern. Government spending needs remain elevated due to successive domestic and external shocks, resulting...

Full Report