Research Update: South Africa Outlook Revised To Positive On Improved Reform And Growth Potential

We expect South African GDP growth will increase to 1.4% over 2025-2027 from 1.0% in 2024 as electricity load-shedding has eased, but ongoing logistics bottlenecks will continue constraining economic activity. However, planned acceleration of economic reforms by the new Government of National Unity and a pickup in private investment could bolster prospects more than we expect. Despite high gross government debt of about 76% of GDP, fiscal consolidation is ongoing and South Africa benefits from access to deep domestic markets and an actively traded currency. We therefore revised our outlook on South Africa to positive from stable and affirmed our 'BB-/B' foreign currency and 'BB/B' local currency long- and short-term ratings on the sovereign. On Nov. 15, 2024, S&P Global

...- We expect South African GDP growth will increase to 1.4% over 2025-2027 from 1.0% in 2024 as electricity load-shedding has eased, but ongoing logistics bottlenecks will continue constraining economic activity. - However, planned acceleration of economic reforms by the new Government of National Unity and a pickup in private investment could bolster prospects more than we expect. - Despite high gross government debt of about 76% of GDP, fiscal consolidation is ongoing and South Africa benefits from access to deep domestic markets and an actively traded currency. - We therefore revised our outlook on South Africa to positive from stable and affirmed our '##-/B' foreign currency and '##/B' local currency long- and short-term ratings on the sovereign....

Research Update